Dear friends,
please find here below the latest and final resuming of crop 2019 global production:
Source: Tomato News
As you can see, the total quantity is substantially higher than crop 2018 and as I had already expected, a production of about 37.4 million tons of fresh tomato has been achieved.
Following the logic of my latest report, we can declare that the average production from 2014 to 2019 was corresponding to about 38 million tons and that consequently in the crop just finished we simply produced a quantity which is within the average of last years and most likely also matching real global consumption.
Basically, if at the beginning of the 2019 crop we started with a very reduced carryover thanks to the shortage of 2018, at the beginning of the 2020 crop we will start again with the same carryover.
Carryovers are moving away from the USA to Turkey and Iran but overall the quantity in stock appears to be the same.
It is clear that the intentions of the 2020 crop, which however have not been confirmed yet, suggest a probable increase up to 40-41 million tons of fresh tomato and this is largely due to the likely increases in California. If this is confirmed, it means that at the beginning of the 2021 crop we will have 2-3 millions tons of carryover more as unfortunately consumption seems not to increase.
Obviously we must never forget the unpredictability of the weather conditions that in recent years have almost always influenced the final results of the crop.
At European level, the crop intentions will remain similar to those of 2019 with a likely small increase in Italy.
To point out the potential effects of Brexit not really for the increases in customs tariffs for European products but because London could decide not to apply duties on goods coming from non-EU countries such as California and perhaps even China and this would substantially change the market flow for that destination.
We will revert as soon as we get more important information
Armando Gandolfi
